On the Issue of Assessing the Effectiveness of Air Defense Based on a Pandemic Model

EasyChair Preprint 4173

Abstract

To assess the effectiveness of quarantine measures during the COVID'19 pandemic and to make recommendations on when to start quarantine, experts from some NATO countries have widely used a pandemic model called the Flat the curve. They are based on the SIR model (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) proposed in 1927 by Kermack and McKendrick, which describes, using a system of ordinary differential equations, the relationship between the number of people susceptible to infection (S), infected (I) and those already immune to it, that is recovered or dead (R).

This paper indicates the advisability of military analysts mastering the methodology for modeling pandemics as an alternative approach used to predict the course of hostilities, substantiate scenarios for the use of troops and requirements for their weapons and military equipment. Such approach expands the methodology of identification of the critical requirements for armaments and military equipment  in the context of an operational needs statement for defense planning process.

Keyphrases: Air Defense, Flat the curve, SIR-curve, UAV attacks

@booklet{EasyChair:4173,
  author    = {Vadym Slyusar},
  title     = {On the Issue of Assessing the Effectiveness of Air Defense Based on a Pandemic Model},
  howpublished = {EasyChair Preprint 4173},
  year      = {EasyChair, 2020}}