“Urbanisation” or “Ruralisation”: The dilemma of future residential electricity consumption in Ghana

EasyChair Preprint 742

Abstract

Global household electricity consumption of appliances is anticipated to double by 2030, with most of the growth expected to occur in developing countries. The rising electricity consumption is triggered by population growth, economic development, change in lifestyle and increasing domestic appliance ownership. In Ghana, population is projected to be 40 million by 2030, with an average annual growth rate of 2.5%. Presently, urban centres account for 55% of the population and 70% of the residential electricity consumption. With the government’s efforts of decreasing rural to urban migration through its district industrialization agenda, the evolution of electricity demand becomes uncertain due to the
uncertainty of how “urbanisation” or “ruralisation” influences residential electricity consumption. Consequently, the main objective of this study is to estimate the future demand for electricity in urban and rural contexts (2015-2050) under different migration scenarios (High, Medium, Low). In this study, 21 household appliances and 4 lighting technologies are
categorised under 8 different end-uses and modelled. A hybrid approach is used, combining a bottom-up approach to estimate electricity consumption with top-down data from population, income and appliance ownership. The results of the 3 scenarios show that by 2050 the rural consumption maybe 19%, 67% and 134% of the urban consumption for the High, Medium and Low scenarios, respectively.
 

Keyphrases: Appliance ownership, Electricity demand, Ghana, bottom-up approach, electricity intensity, population, top-down approach

@booklet{EasyChair:742,
  author    = {Felix Amankwah Diawuo and André Pina and Patricia C. Baptista and Carlos A. Silva},
  title     = {“Urbanisation” or “Ruralisation”: The dilemma of future residential electricity consumption in Ghana},
  howpublished = {EasyChair Preprint 742},
  year      = {EasyChair, 2019}}