Modelling of Population Consumption in Conditions of Instability

EasyChair Preprint 1006

Abstract

The analysis of consumption plays an important role in both macroeconomic theory and empirical research. The matter of macroeconomic instability is one of the main points in modern macroeconomics. The tasks of the paper are: to reveal the essence of the consumption of the population as an economic category; to assess consumer attitudes in different countries, to determine the number of factors that affect the level of consumption and its structural elements under instability; and to construct the models of population consumption patterns. The analysis of the changes in consumer attitudes over the world during the period of instability was conducted. We observed the dynamics and structure of household consumption spending in the United States, Canada, Japan, the European Union, the Russian Federation and Ukraine. It has been resolved that over the past few years the global trend has improved, which is characterized by an increase in the consumer confidence index for most countries. Note, that we made a focus on the post-crisis period only for Ukraine, not considering the war period due to unsupported data. Nevertheless, we found out that the Consumer Confidence Index in Ukraine has dropped sharply over the past two years. Ukraine's population still negatively assesses the economic trend due to the difficult macroeconomic situation in the country. We built the model of the dependence of the rate of consumption growth on the growth rates of the permanent and temporary incomes, the rate of inflation and the percentage deviation from the long-term equilibrium in the period of instability based on the samples for different periods for the United States, Canada, Japan, the Russian Federation and European countries

Keyphrases: Consumer confidence index, EU, Ukraine, instability, model, сonsumption

@booklet{EasyChair:1006,
  author    = {Ganna Kharlamova and Oleksandr Chernyak and Andriy Stavytskyy},
  title     = {Modelling of Population Consumption in Conditions of Instability},
  howpublished = {EasyChair Preprint 1006},
  year      = {EasyChair, 2019}}