Chemical Master Equation model to predict the COVID-19 epidemic spread

4 pages•Published: February 16, 2023

Manuel Pájaro, Antonio A. Alonso and Irene Otero-Muras

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemics has shown relevant stochasticity in the spread of viral in- fection. Here, we formulate the dynamics of the epidemics spread as a stochastic SIR model, handling the compartmental model (of the SIR type) as a set of chemical reactions, and applying the Chemical Master Equation that describes the dynamics of the equivalent stochastic chemical reaction system. In this way, the solution (evolution of the probability distribution over time) can be obtained via the classical Stochastic Simulation Algorithm. The proposed methodology has been used to predict the COVID-19 evolution in small and medium size municipalities of Galicia.

Keyphrases: chemical master equation, covid 19, sir model, stochastic simulation algorithm, wastewater threatment plants

In: Alvaro Leitao and Lucía Ramos (editors). Proceedings of V XoveTIC Conference. XoveTIC 2022, vol 14, pages 63-66.

Links:	https://easychair.org/publications/paper/lcN8X
	https://doi.org/10.29007/fqwz

BibTeX entry

@inproceedings{XoveTIC2022:Chemical_Master_Equation_model,
  author    = {Manuel Pájaro and Antonio A. Alonso and Irene Otero-Muras},
  title     = {Chemical Master Equation model to predict the COVID-19 epidemic spread},
  booktitle = {Proceedings of V XoveTIC Conference. XoveTIC 2022},
  editor    = {Alvaro Leitao and Lucía Ramos},
  series    = {Kalpa Publications in Computing},
  volume    = {14},
  publisher = {EasyChair},
  bibsource = {EasyChair, https://easychair.org},
  issn      = {2515-1762},
  url       = {/publications/paper/lcN8X},
  doi       = {10.29007/fqwz},
  pages     = {63-66},
  year      = {2023}}

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